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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 60

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 3-J.Fox punts 25 yards to BAL 35, Center-47-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.39 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 19, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model