4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 48

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to BAL 10, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.74 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model