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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(14:27) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to DET 8, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 56, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP