Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 86

Chicago Bears 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to CLE 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-D.Felton to CLE 38 for 13 yards (8-D.Williams). PENALTY on CLE-52-E.Lee, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 33.

The Three Options

GO -3.40 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.50 EP
74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 86, worth -5.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model