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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 47

Cleveland Browns 3 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 7-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to CHI 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-N.Webster MUFFS catch, touched at CHI 13, recovered by CHI-92-C.Johnson at CHI 19.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model