Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 62

Chicago Bears 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to CLE 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-D.Felton to CLE 21 for 11 yards (24-K.Herbert; 15-N.Webster). PENALTY on CLE-36-M.Stewart, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.98 EP
60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model