4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 83

Chicago Bears 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to CLE 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-D.Felton to CHI 44 for 23 yards (92-C.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 83, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 41, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model