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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 23

Cleveland Browns 10 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 3-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.86 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model