Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 13 – Chicago Bears 3

(5:55) 7-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to CHI 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-N.Webster to CHI 31 for 4 yards (88-H.Bryant; 36-M.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.67 EP
60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model