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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 10

Cleveland Browns 23 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 3-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.65 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 10, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model