Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 65

Chicago Bears 6 – Cleveland Browns 26

(3:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 21 for -14 yards (90-J.Clowney).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.59 EP
67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -2.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.77 EP