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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 29

Chicago Bears 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 2-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.10 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 29, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 39, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP