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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 20

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CHI 31 for -11 yards (52-K.Mack).

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.96 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 20, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model