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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 83

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to IND 41, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 83, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 41, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model