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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 29 for 12 yards (30-G.Odum, 37-K.Willis).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 57, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model