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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 15

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to TEN 9 for 6 yards (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO +3.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.09 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model