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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 9

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 3-R.Blankenship 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model