Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 20 at the 78

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Tennessee Titans 14

(:31) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to TEN 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 41 for 14 yards (20-J.Wilkins).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.03 EP
73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model