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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 5

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Tennessee Titans 22

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 3-R.Blankenship 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP