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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 14

Tennessee Titans 22 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 14-R.Bullock 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.13 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 14, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model