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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 41

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 2-J.Jones pushed ob at IND 26 for 15 yards (32-J.Blackmon).

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.84 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model