Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 79

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

(5:42) 5-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to LAC 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-K.Hill ran ob at LAC 28 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model