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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 6

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 16-T.Vizcaino 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 6, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model