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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 1-T.Long punts 24 yards to 50, Center-54-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.79 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 32, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP