Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 7 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 4-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to NE 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 38 for 8 yards (48-J.Gray, 50-A.Dowell). PENALTY on NE-50-C.Winovich, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.97 EP
53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model