Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 0 – New England Patriots 0

(13:44) 4-B.Gillikin punts 51 yards to NE 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model