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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 50

New England Patriots 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 7-J.Bailey punt is BLOCKED by 50-A.Dowell, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by NO-88-T.Montgomery at NE 49. 88-T.Montgomery to NE 49 for no gain (49-J.Cardona).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.99 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 50, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP