4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 27

New England Patriots 0 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(:39) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.51 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model