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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 70

New England Patriots 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 7-J.Bailey punts 64 yards to NO 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Harris to NO 31 for 25 yards (52-H.Langi, 25-B.Bolden).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.15 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model