Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 71

New England Patriots 3 – New Orleans Saints 21

(13:43) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to NO 30, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model