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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 21 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 4-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.82 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model