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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 8

New England Patriots 3 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 6-N.Folk 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 35th consecutive FG, t-8th all-time (Vinatieri & Tucker).

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 8, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model