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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 68

New England Patriots 6 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 7-J.Bailey punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.29 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model