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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 18 at the 88

New Orleans Saints 21 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 4-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to NE 44, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-G.Olszewski to NO 44 for 12 yards (40-A.Armah).

The Three Options

GO -3.42 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 88, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 46, worth -2.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model