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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 39

New England Patriots 13 – New Orleans Saints 28

What Actually Happened

(:41) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-B.Bolden pushed ob at NO 25 for 14 yards (23-M.Lattimore).

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.04 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP