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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 34

New Orleans Saints 7 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(:13) 6-A.Rosas 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.57 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model