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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to TB 11, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.30 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP