4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 39

Los Angeles Rams 34 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 27 yards to TB 12, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 1-J.Darden. Penalty on TB-48-G.Stuard, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.17 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP