Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(8:38) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to TB 11, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 15 for 4 yards (82-J.Mundt).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.01 EP
63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model