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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 23

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 8-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.09 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model