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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 37

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.27 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model