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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 27

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Arizona Cardinals 27

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 8-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.56 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model