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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Arizona Cardinals 34

What Actually Happened

(12:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee.

The Three Options

GO +4.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.21 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth +1.24 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model