Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 19 at the 84

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

(10:04) 14-A.Lee punts 47 yards to LA 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-T.Atwell to LA 37 for no gain (86-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 84, worth -5.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model