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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 48

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(:55) 5-B.Anger punts 36 yards to CAR 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.22 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model