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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 26

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 2-Dj.Moore left end ran ob at CAR 40 for 6 yards (18-D.Kazee).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.12 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model