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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 33 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +3.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.99 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT +0.60 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP