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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 63

Dallas Cowboys 36 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 5-B.Anger punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.09 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model