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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 21 – Dallas Cowboys 36

What Actually Happened

(4:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 16-B.Zylstra pushed ob at DAL 13 for 55 yards (30-A.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -2.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model