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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 36

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Thielen [95-M.Garrett].

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.08 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model